CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-12-31T22:00:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-12-31T22:00ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28422/-1
CME Note: Fast partial halo CME with protruding narrower nose, seen in SOHO C2/C3 coronagraphs (fully covered by a data gap in STEREO A beacon); associated with X5 class flare from AR13536 near East limb. Coronal signatures include narrow ejecta seen in GOES SUVI 304 starting 2023-12-31T21:44Z and a wide EUV wave in AIA 193. Possible arrival signature is characterized by sharp jumping in B tot from 5nT to just under 10nT and increases in solar wind speed (from 425 km/s to ~490 km/s), density and temperature. DSCOVR is corroborated by ACE (despite large data gaps). The initial shock is followed after 2024-01-03T16:30Z by a smooth rotation of all three magnetic field components, indicating a flux rope. An hour later there is a similar arrival signature at STEREO A. Tentatively associating this arrival with 2023-12-31T22:00Z CME. Even though this might alternatively be 2023-12-30T09:36Z CME arriving, 2023-12-31T22:00Z CME is a likelier candidate bc of high speed at L1.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-01-03T14:19Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-01-02T18:14Z (-4.81h, +5.62h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2023/12/31 21:50Z Plane of Sky 1: 00:00Z; Rsun; Direction Plane of Sky 2: 06:00Z; Rsun; Direction POS Difference: 6:00 POS Midpoint: 03:00Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 5:10 Numeric View/Impact Type: 0 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~8.59 Travel Time: ~8.59 * 5:10 = 44:24 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-01-02T18:14Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 0.75 hours - Travel Time: 5% Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 4/5Lead Time: 46.13 hour(s)
Difference: 20.08 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-01-01T16:11Z
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